Manitoba Hydro and the Whistleblower - from our Legislative Committee meeting Monday March 8

Curiously, Manitoba Hydro has been following the whistleblower's recommendations very precisely, even while discrediting her.

An email, now available from the Whistleblower to the CEO of Manitoba Hydro on September 8, 2008 lays out precisely her recommendations for the operation of Lake Winnipeg as a reservoir for Manitoba Hydro. In her email, she shows with her model the critical importance of having levels at or very close to 713.7 feet for Lake Winnipeg in March before the spring run off. The email is available at http://www.hydro.mb.ca/corporate/related_exhibits/48a.pdf

In the two years since Manitoba Hydro, even while publicly discrediting the whistleblower, has operated on Lake Winnipeg precisely as the whistleblower recommended with levels of 713.76 feet in March 2009, and 713.6 feet in March 2010.

The whistleblower, in her email to Bob Brennan, Manitoba Hydro’s President and CEO, provides graphs and an explanation of why keeping Lake Winnipeg at this level in March is optimum for power generation. She explains that below a level of 712.9 feet in March, the increase of financial risk to Manitoba Hydro from a drought increases dramatically. She also provides evidence that in 2003-2004, when Manitoba Hydro lost about half a billion dollars as a result of the drought, the loss may have occurred because Manitoba Hydro was at that time letting the water level decrease too low in March (it went down to 712.5 in March 2003). She argues that Manitoba Hydro could have made money had it taken the optimum approach to keep the level in March 2003 at a higher level.

While CEO Brennan would not acknowledge at Legislative Committee Monday night that Manitoba Hydro lost money because it did not operate optimally in 2003/04, the fact that levels in 2009 and 2010 have been kept very close to the Whistleblower’s recommendations suggest Manitoba Hydro has learned from the experience in 2003/04, and may now be planning to use 713.7 in March as its benchmark for operating dams which control levels on Lake Winnipeg. If this is the case, then Manitoba Hydro should tell all Manitobans its plans for maintaining water levels on Lake Winnipeg as this has important implications for residents on the shores of our largest lake. Residents of Manitoba will I believe accept that this is the critical level to have Lake Winnipeg in the spring, if it is clear, as the Whistleblower suggests, that lower levels could be associated with huge losses to Manitoba Hydro as happened in 2003/04. However, keeping the lake at this level is spring does have implications for levels the rest of the year, and people in Manitoba need to know what is being done so we are all informed and prepared.

The Concordia By-election - Liberals don't quit and gain votes, NDP and Tories lose votes

In the byelection in Concordia last week, Judi Heppner and the Manitoba Liberals continued campaigning hard right to the end. Unlike the Tories who gave up early in the day, Liberals kept going and worked hard. It paid off. Judi Heppner, already described twice on my blog, was an outstanding candidate and it showed in the quality of everything she did. She and her husband Rob and her three children contributed a lot.

Despite an overall record low turnout, the Liberal vote increased by 82% from 336 votes in 2007 up to 613 votes in the byelection. In contrast, the NDP vote decreased by almost half from 3862 votes in 2007 down to 2065 votes in the byelection. The Tory vote also collapsed decreasing by more than 40% from 1209 votes in 2007 to 694 in the byelection.

A big thanks to the many volunteers who put in long hours to make this happen. I know how hard people worked because I was out there with the team all the way. A particular thank you goes to Bill de Jong and his wife Sheila who served as Campaign Manager and Official Agent for the campaign. Thank you Bill and Sheila for all you did to pull the team together and keep people working hard and effectively all through the campaign. Also, a major thank you to Daniel Lemire, President of the Concordia Liberal Constituency Association for your dedicated efforts. Thank yous for big efforts also go to Ian Band, Sachit Mehra, Regan Wolform, Yvonne Morris, Rob Dyck, Rob Brown, Wayne Hutton, Gemma Eko-Davis, Ron Wally, Peter Koroma, Paul Hesse, Leah Ross and my wife Naomi Gerrard who headed up the Regional Teams and to Kevin Lamoureux for his help and participation. Thanks also to Walt Nilsson, Isaiah Oyeleru, Greg Liverpool, Cheryl Conley-Strange, Scott Sarna and Val Thompson, Patricia Ek0-Davis, Daniel Deng and the many, many others who helped in one way or another during the campaign, and in particular to our hard working Executive Director Dennis Trochim.

Judi Heppner, the best choice for Concordia - the person, the issues

Here is what people say about Judi Heppner, the Liberal candidate in Concordia.

"Judi's competence and extensive knowledge have proven to be an incredible resource for us."
- Jerry Stunick, Employer Liaison for Employment Projects Manitoba.

"Judi was a loyal supporter and someone I could trust."
- a former client

"I've never known Judi to give up a fight for any issues she thought were important enough to champion.."
- Jill Jeffery, President - Bridgebuilder Communications.


Here are some of the approaches Judi supports in Concordia:

Health Care:
- More resources to front line to improve hospitals like Concordia.
- Eliminate wait times and train more family doctors.
(Waiting for 13 hours for care in the Concordia hospital emergency room under the NDP is unacceptable. We need to do better.)

Improved Well-Being for Children
- More child care spaces and qualified caregivers
- Safe, loving and secure homes for children in Child and Family Services
(There are too many stories of problems with Child and Family Services under the NDP - we need improvements. When Judi wrote to the Minister responsible, he never even replied - see Judi's blog - judiheppnercampaign.wordpress.com ).

Solutions to Crime
- Addressing the root causes of crime: poverty, abuse and poor parenting.
- Meaningful consequences for offenders.
(The NDP approach to crime in the last ten years has not been good enough. We need to have better results.)

Improved Work Life
- Legislation for respectful workplaces through supporting Bill 219.
- Improved processes to recognize foreign trade credentials.
- Better quality jobs and training.
(Under the NDP we have fallen behind other provinces like Saskatchewan in our approach to making workplaces more respectful, and to decrease workplace bullying. We need to improve.)

Says Judi:
"I want change that will result in improved child welfare, accountability in government, more respectful workplaces and improved health for the people of Manitoba."

If you would like to help Judi, please call her campaign office 663-3101 or email the campaign
at judiheppnercampaign@gmail.com

Bloodvein, Berens River, Poplar River, Pauingassi and Little Grand Rapids First Nations Feb 13-18

"I am constantly seeking to live apure life and, by my life, to be an example to the children of Pauingassi and the community as a whole. I have peace in my soul."

Quotation from Charlie George Owen beneath his picture in the Omiishosh Memorial School in Pauingassi.

This past week, I spent four days on the east side of Lake Winnipeg. We began in Bloodvein, where we met with Chief Frank Young and members of his council (top photo). During the meeting, we had a "Moose Break" - to watch a moose crossing the Berens River outside where we were meeting (photo 2).

In Berens River, we found a Great Grey Owl, our provincial bird (photo 3). There, we visited the school where I talked to two of the classes (photos 4 and 5). At Berens River, they are preparing for the construction of the east side road by crushing gravel (photo 6). They are also active in cutting logs (photo 7) and in building split log homes (photo 8). This provides considerable local employment, as well as improves the local housing situation. With council members we reviewed maps of the options for the location of the road to Berens and future roads to the north (photo 9) as well as the location of the proposed World Heritage Site.

At Poplar River, we met with Chief Russell Lambert and his Council (photo 10). One of our stops was at the Head Start program (photos 11 and 12), an active program which is preparing young children to be ready for starting school. It is making a difference, and it is helping parents as well as children.

In Pauingassi, we met with council members (photo 13) , and met with principal Cindy Romahn, a dedicated professional who is working hard to improve the lives of children in the community (photo 14). The school is well designed and attractive (photo 15).

At Little Grand Rapids we visited the rapids themselves (photo 16 - shows my travelling companions Orville Woodford and Peter Koroma near the rapids). We met with several councillors including Deon Lam (photo 17).

The winter road between Pauingassi and Little Grand Rapids is impressive - as wide as a ten lane highway in places (photos 18 and 19).

During the course of our four days, we discussed many issues, including health care (and the high incidence of diabetes), issues with child and family services, the need for more recreational facilities for young people, head start programs, improvements in the provision of grades 10, 11 and 12 so that more young people from the community graduate from grade 12, economic development initiatives including the east side road, the proposed World Heritage Site housing, fishing issues and issues related to Manitoba Hydro. I want to thank all those who helped make our visit possible, and the members of the five communities who are clearly engaged in trying to improve their communities. I will not forget my visit, and I look forward to working together with members of the communities in the future.

Boyd Upper - A tribute and a thank you.

Boyd Upper visited with Manitoba Liberals over the weekend. He is an inspiration. He was involved in the move to have a Canadian flag - being one of the young Liberals presenting a resolution to this effect at a convention in Winnipeg in about 1956. He was involved in the effort to bring in our Canadian medicare system. He attended a crucial Liberal on in about 1961 - at which a resolution was passed, after intense debate, to support bringing medicare into Canada. He was there, in the Ontario election in the early 1960s in which the idea of a Canada Pension Plan was pushed forward to much opposition. For all your work on these initiatives, we thank you Boyd.

Boyd, we also thank you for bringing to Manitoba your experience with numerous campaigns and your assistance in helping Manitoba Liberals in our efforts to elect more Liberals in our province.

Boyd is beside me in the photo above. On my right is my wife, Naomi. On Bloyd's left is Judi Hepper, our candidate in the Concordia bylection coming up.

If you can help in the byelection, please call Judi's campaign manager Bill de Jong at 667-8056 or email the campaign at judiheppnercampaign@gmail.com

Lucentis - Why I am so passionate about making sure Lucentis is available and covered under pharmacare in Manitoba

Lucenits is a drug used to treat acute macular degeneration and it has been found to be a remarkably effective treatment. Acute macular degeneration is a major, indeed I think, the major cause of blindness in seniors. Lucentis is so effective in some people, that people treated early who have lost enough sight that they can no longer drive have their sight return so that they can drive a car once again. It is remarkable. Lucentis is now covered under pharmacare in most provinces. It is not covered under pharmacare in Manitoba. It should be. See also

http://www.manitobaliberals.ca/2009/01/lucentis-avastin-and-treatment-of-age.html

I am really passionate about this because my father has lost his vision to acute macular degeneration. For my father, the vision loss occurred before Lucentis was available, and sadly at that time there was no effective treatment to save the sight in a person with acute macular degeneration of the type he developed. Over the ten years or more since my father lost his vision (he is legally blind - though with the aid of large magnifying glasses and similar aids he can read but it is cumbersome), it has made his life much more difficult than it would have been had he been able to see well. It would have made so much difference to him and to all of us who are close to him, if he could see well. We do what we can to read to him, and he listens to music and talking books but it is not the same as having full sight.

Nevertheless, my father is a very remarkable person. Even in cold weather, he walks for long distances outside every day to keep fit. He keeps up to date with what is happening and he really enjoys the company of family and friends. In the photo above, I am going for a walk with my father in Saskatoon over the Christmas holidays.

I have a great deal to thank my father for. Throughout my life he has been there for me. Once when I was young, I almost drowned in a swift river, and he jumped in and swam to save me. In the years since, he has been supportive in so many ways it would be impossible to count.

I have featured him on my blog on a numer of occasions including

a) his role in the Second World War - http://www.manitobaliberals.ca/2005_11_06_archive.html

and

b) his role in promoting breast feeding and in understanding and treating allergies

http://www.manitobaliberals.ca/2006_06_25_archive.html

and

http://www.manitobaliberals.ca/2006_09_24_archive.html

as well as on many family occasions. One day, I will all put on my blog more details of his role in the discovery of an effective treatment for phenylketonuria, a condition that if not treated results in serious and irreversible brain damage. Today thanks to my father and others who worked with him, many, many children the world over who are born with phenylketonuria are detected at birth and are treated and grow up developing normally and live normal lives, though they have to keep to a particular diet to stay well.

It is because of my father that I am so passionate about ensuring people in Manitoba who have acute macular degeneration have access to lucentis. We can prevent blindness in many people with this disease. We need to be doing it, without having Manitobans pay out thousands of dollars to do so. It should be part of our basic medicare support system so it is available to all Manitobans regardless of income.

I am still getting calls from people who are having great difficulty getting the lucentis they need. It is time for Manitoba to do what most other provinces have done, and cover lucentis under pharmacare.

THE PUSH FOR LUCENTIS COVERAGE SWINGS INTO HIGHER GEAR IN MANITOBA - IT IS TIME TO END MANITOBANS STATUS AS "SECOND CLASS CANADIANS".

I have received an email from Dean Cousens with the Coalition for Lucentis Equality in Manitoba. He raised the isse at the February 2nd meeting of the Manitoba Chamber of Commerce where Health Minister Theresa Oswald spoke. In brief, from Dean's notes, he asked the Minister the following:

GOOD MORNING, MADAM MINISTER.

I'M DEAN COUSENS AND MY GUEST IS SILVIA CHIARAMELLO. THESE NAMES MAY SOUND FAMILIR TO YOU AS WE'VE BOTH BEEN WRITING TO YOU FOR OVER ONE YEAR REGARDING THE ISSUE OF AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATION, WHICH AS YOU KNOW, IS THE LEADING CAUSE OF BLINDNESS IN CANADA FOR ADULTS OVER TEH AGE OF 50.

OTHER ORGANIZATIONS HAVE BEEN WRITING TO YOU FOR OVER TWO YEARS!

AT A COST OF $1,000 PER EACH INJECTION INTO HER EYES, MY FRIEND SILVIA HAS ALREDY SPENT $5,000 TO MAINTAIN HER EYESIGHT.

SINCE 2007, ALMOST 3 YEARS AGO, A DRUG TREATMENT (LUCENTIS) HAS BEEN AVAILABLE, AND IS CURRENTLY FREE TO OVER 90% OF CANADIANS IN 7 PROVINCES, BUT WHENEVER WE ASK YOUR DEPARTMENT WHENI T WILL BE AVAILABLE TO MANAITOBANS, YOU CLAIM YOU ARE "STILL NEGOTIATING" - EVEN AFTER IT HAS BEEN AVAILABLE ELSEWHERE FOR THREE YEARS!

CAN YOU PLEASE HELP ME UNDERSTAND JUST WHAT THE REAL ISSUE IS, AND WHAT IS SO UNIQUE ABOUT MANITOBA, THAT YOUR GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO FINALIZE AN AGREEMENT WHICH 7 OTHER PROVINCES HAVE NEGOTIATED QUITE SSUCCESSFULLY? IT'S INEXCUSABLE THAT MANITOBANS ARE BEING TREATED AS "SECOND CLASS CANADIANS", AND MANY ARE GOING BLIND, AS THEY CANNOT AFFORD THE LUCENTIS TREATMENT.

THANK YOU.

Dean tell's me the Minister replied with her usual "We're working on it."

I say - "What is the matter Madam Minister, that it takes three years to get this important drug under pharmacare for Manitobans? How many more Manitobans will go blind before you act? Manitobans should have been covered some time ago. We should not have had to wait, wait and wait like this."

The Algal Bowl by David Schindler and John Vallentyne - A Comment

I have read with great interest, The Algal Bowl, a book which provides an in depth scientific perspective on the problems of algae on lakes like Lake Winnipeg and Killarney Lake in Manitoba. It is a really good book and recommended reading for anyone interested in decreasing the algal problems in Manitoba's lakes. I have several comments.



1) David Schindler and John Vallentyne make the very important point that we need to focus on reducing the amount of phosphorous getting into our lakes. They also indicate strongly that we do not need to reduce nitrogen going into our lakes, because the most problem causing algae can get the nitrogen they need from the air. While there may be a few exceptions - possibly hot weather marine river delta environments - the critical need in almost all circumstances is to reduce phosphorous only. I have been pushing for several years now for a change in Winnipeg, to remove phosphorous but not nitrogen from our City's sewage and waste-water. It is good to have strong support for this approach in The Algal Bowl.



2) David Schindler and John Vallentyne present elegantly the role of fish species in influencing algal blooms. When because of overfishing, or for other reasons, large fish-eating fish like pickerel or pike are depleted in numbers, there is an increase in the fish species which eat small planktonic crustacea called daphnia and as a result reduce daphnia populations. Because daphnia feed on algae, conditions which reduce pickerel and pike and lead to a reduction in daphnia can lead to increases in algae. For Lake Winnipeg this does not appear to be a problem at the moment as populations of pickerel have been abundant in recent years. Lake Winnipegosis which has seen a major depletion of pickerel has not had algal problems, but this is likely because the phosphorous concentrations in Lake Winnipegosis are very low. This is further discussed on page 173 of The Algal Bowl.



3) More attention should have been given to the influence of flow on phosphorous content of water bodies. Increasing evidence suggests that high flow situations are associated with increased phosphorous transport to Lake Winnipeg. This may happen for a variety of reasons. High flow situations, in the spring run off or at the extreme during floods, are often those in which phosphorous is washed from the land into the waterways. This may be due to phosphorous applied as fertilizer or manure to the land, or it may just be that high flow is associated with increased washing of organic matter (grasses, leaves, crop residue etc) into the waterways, or due to high flow producing more erosion of the banks of the waterways. Erosion of soil from banks, along rivers or along the shores of Lake Winnipeg can contribute to the amount of phosphorous, as there is phosphorous bound to the soil and erosion of the soil into the water increases the phosphorous content of the water. It would have helped to have a chapter on the impact of flow conditions on phosphorous levels in the waterways.

In understanding flow conditions, it is noteworthy under low flow conditions phosphorous bound to particles sediments out of the water. Interestingly, when a dam is built, whether small or large, phosphorous settles out of the water. Thus downstream from a dam, the phosphorous content of the water is much lower after a dam is put in a stream or a river. For example, the Saskatchewan River, even though it drains a lot of agricultural land in Alberta and Saskatchewan, provides a relatively small amount of phosphorous into Lake Winnipeg because much of the phosphorous settles out of the water behind the large Gardiner, Squaw Rapids and Grand Rapids dams. Similarly, the Winnipeg River does not contribute as much phosphorous as it might probably because of settling behind the dams along it. Small dams, along the South Tobacco Creek have been also been shown, I understand, to reduce peak flows and phosphorous levels downstream.


4) I also felt there could have been a more in depth understanding of the role of marshes and how to manage marshes to reduce phosphorous in the water. Schindler and Vallentyne do emphasize the important of marshes in denitrification - releasing nitrogen in the air, and lowering the amount of nitrogen in the water. But, managing marshes optimally to reduce phosphorous is important for lakes like Killarney Lake in southern Manitoba where there are major concerns about algal blooms. It would have been helpful to have a chapter specifically on marsh management to reduce algal blooms.


5) Lastly, there could have been much more discussion on the role of surface and sub-surface drainage as it affects phosphorous levels in waterways. Increased drainage achieved by increasing surface drainage, and surface run-off will tend to increase the amount of phosphorous going into the waterways. In contrast, when sub-surface drainage like tile drainage is used, the water flows through the soil before entering the waterways and much of the phosphorous can be bound by the soil during this process thus dramatically reducing the phosphorous going into the waterways. A caution is necessary here, though, because if the phosphorous levels in the soil are very high, the phosphorous binding sites can become saturated and the soil can no longer bind additional phosphorous and is not effective in removing phoshorous. Fortunately, for most of the agricultural areas of Manitoba, the amount of phosphorous in the soils is low and this is not a problem, with the exception of locations with feedlots.

For example, in 1982, Bengtson showed that tile drainage could reduce phosphorous run off by 48%. For more on this see http://www.manitobaliberals.ca/2005_09_18_archive.html.

Judi Heppner is the Liberal candidate in the Concordia byelection

Last night Judi Heppner was nominated as the Liberal candidate for the upcoming Concordia byelection.

Judi lives in Concordia with her husband Rob and their three children, and she is committed to working for and helping people in Concordia. Judi is a social worker, a graduate of Booth College, and she has almost 20 years experience working to better the lives of Manitobans through her work with Marymound, MacDonald Youth Services, Booth College, Heathy Child Manitoba, Sara Riel and Mount Carmel Clinic. Judi has worked in leadership roles supervising a clinical team in program delivery and supervising student youth care workers. Judi is especially known for her strong advocacy on issues such as recognizing the academic credentials of smaller post-secondary institutions and recognizing the needs and rights of children in care. She has been involved with FASD service delivery and prevention, as an evaluator of the North End Schools Safer Corridors Project and in the 1997 Manitoba Birth Cohort Study. She presently sits on the Board of Governors of the University of Manitoba. She is running because she believes strongly in the need for changes at the provincial level to improve the child welfare system in Manitoba and to improve our ability to have strong community support for children, for youth, for workers and for seniors.

Please also see Judi Heppner's blog at
http://judiheppnercampaign.wordpress.com

Greg Selinger's $93 million goof

Last spring, Greg Selinger, then Manitoba's Finance Minister, presented his budget on March 25, 2009. In his budget he estimated that Corporation Income Tax revenues for the 2009-2010 fiscal year would be $347 million.

I looked at the budget, and based on what happened in Manitoba during the 1991 recession, when corporate income tax revenues dropped dramatically, I suspected Selinger had made a big mistake in overestimating the corporate income tax revenue. The next day (March 26) in the Legislature I challenged Mr. Selinger on his calculations:

"Mr. Gerrard: Mr. Speaker, during the recession of the early 1990s, corporate income tax revenue dropped from $201 million in 1989 to $152 million in 1990 to $78 million in 1991, yet this government believes we will not experience such a significant drop-off in corporate tax revenue. Based on the experience of the early '90s, it's likely the minister is overestimating corporate tax revenues for the coming year by about $50 million to $100 million. "

In reply, Mr. Selinger said he was just using long standing projections.

In my supplementary question I asked:

"Mr. Gerrard: Mr. Speaker, you know, the minister says he's using long-standing predictions, but in 1991, the then Conservative government, presumably [using] the same predictions, made a serious error when it estimated corporate income tax revenues in the 1991 budget of $173 million, and they came in at $78 million. That was one of the most shocking mistakes in the history of Manitoba, overestimating by almost $100 million the [corporation tax] revenue. "

"Today, the present Minister of Finance is about to repeat a Tory mistake. The integrity of the budget is in jeopardy. He hasn't paid attention to the normal changes expected during an economic recession. Why is the Minister so determined to repeat the Tory mistakes of the past?"

Then on April 6, 2009, I asked again. Mr. Selinger was adamant "we expect the budget to stay on track."

And now, just before Christmas, the NDP government presented its updated budget forecast for the 2009-2010 fiscal year. And, there in black and white, is the revised estimate of corporate income tax revenue - now at $254 million, some $93 million less than the budget estimate of $347 million. This decrease in corporate income tax revenues, which was very predictable, is one of the significant reasons that the NDP now estimate they are way off track on this year's budget - and that we will have a major deficit of $592 million this fiscal year.

While some elements of the deficit might be excused as not so predictable (the H1N1 flu costs for example), the decrease in corporate income taxes was very predictable. The NDP are getting our province into fiscal trouble because they were not smart last spring when they put together their budget. In short, Mr. Selinger made a $93 million goof in his overestimate of corporate income tax revenue, and now we are seeing the result of his poor management.